Halifax confirms it expects house prices to continue falling until 2025, despite the one month rise in it’s average house price index https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/october-2023-house-price-index.pdf RICS survey for October shows buyer demand and sales activity in ‘deeply negative territory’ https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/10._WEB_October_2023_RICS_UK_Residential_Market_Survey_tp.pdf MHWC provides mathematical proof that house prices go down when the ‘average’ price goes up https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tm4EzSBXTifKIRjPAoTUGW7td62SrPKee4jELjUxgzk/edit?usp=sharing RICS… Continue reading 5 Fact Friday 10 Nov 2023 Mortgage Arrears jump 7% in Q3 2023
Blog
Are house prices falling or not?
5FF – 3rd Nov 2023 Mortgage approvals fall to lowest level since 2011 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/money-and-credit/2023/september-2023 Zoopla says house prices falling in 80% of local housing markets https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/house-price-index/ Leasehold Reform to be in King’s Speech https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67256391 Nationwide October HPI says monthly prices rose (but that’s misleading) https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/house-prices-increase-in-october-but-remain-lower-than-a-year-ago Discrepancy in Land Reg Indices v Raw Average
“The Discrepancy” in house prices is a fact.
It’s significance is a matter of opinion, open to debate. By Charlie Lamdin The existence of a discrepancy between the Land Registry’s House Price Index figures, and the raw (unweighted, unmanipulated) median figures is a verifiable fact illustrated nicely by @alexgroundwater ‘s graph. You can check the raw data for yourself here: https://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ppd/ The discrepancy… Continue reading “The Discrepancy” in house prices is a fact.
House Price Fall Cover-Up?
There are lies, damned lies, and the Office for National Statistics. In the latest release, the ONS reported annual house prices to August 2023 actually ROSE 0.2%. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-august-2023/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2023 But the data in the image, taken from raw Land Registry data, shows annual average house price falls of -12.6%. Is there a cover up? Average House… Continue reading House Price Fall Cover-Up?
The UK’s House Price Correction has only just begun.
The house price “correction” if you want to call it that, is only just getting started. The “corrections” being applied will include correcting for: 1. 12+ years of artificially low interest rates 2. The effects of £1trn of QE now being reversed 3. The unwinding of the effects of Help to Buy on wider house… Continue reading The UK’s House Price Correction has only just begun.
5FF – Fri 27th October 2023
1 UK’s biggest wealth manager blocks clients from withdrawing money from their £1bn property fund. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/st-james-place-blocks-clients-pulling-money-major-property/ https://archive.ph/Po6I4 2 Almost half of the 1,200 people surveyed incorrectly think Interest Rates correlate more strongly with house prices than anything else https://x.com/moving_charlie/status/1717178983110832254?s=20 https://x.com/moving_charlie/status/1717541641727115671?s=20 3 Lloyds/Halifax predicts house prices will fall until 2025 https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12673173/House-prices-fall-2025-says-Lloyds-rates-peaked.html 4 Foxtons reports 23% fall… Continue reading 5FF – Fri 27th October 2023
5FF 20 Oct 2023
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-14/uk-jobs-market-has-one-recession-warning-signal-flashing-red 2. Rightmove October Index – Asking Prices down -0.8% yoy https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2023/10/Rightmove-HPI-16th-October-Final.pdf 3. Buy to Let party for 70%+ LTV is DEAD. -Savills https://x.com/luciancook/status/1713856335337476129?s=46&t=qGtk0CnhZbr405E5nhNA0w 4. ONS Land Registry House Prices RISE +0.2% yoy https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/august2023 5. Inflation stops falling. Stays at 6.3% (OOH up to 5%) https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest 6. Knight Frank to lay off up to 300… Continue reading 5FF 20 Oct 2023
The Past, Present & Future of UK House Prices
18 OCT 2023 – HOW WE GOT HERE – 20 years of stimulus, which has all now stopped. 5 House Price Boosting Artificial Stimuli That Have Now Ended QE Stopped https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easing Help to Buy Stopped https://www.gov.uk/help-to-buy-equity-loan Stamp Duty Holiday Ended https://www.gov.uk/guidance/stamp-duty-land-tax-temporary-reduced-rates Covid Stimulus https://www.icaew.com/insights/viewpoints-on-the-news/2021/aug-2021/chart-breakdown-of-the-uk-governments-372bn-covid-bill Low Interest Rates https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.asp WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW (or 6-12 months ago)… Continue reading The Past, Present & Future of UK House Prices
5 Fact Friday 13 October 2023
RICS September Survey: Demand, sales, instructions and prices all remain in negative territory https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/9._WEB_September_2023_RICS_UK_Residential_Market_Survey_tp.pdf Wages Cooling: KPMG Survey shows slowest rise in starting pay in over two years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-10/uk-wage-growth-cools-as-job-cuts-mount-and-firms-cap-costs IMF Says Israel-Hamas War will impact global economy, especially oil prices https://news.sky.com/story/israel-hamas-war-is-new-cloud-darkening-horizon-of-global-economy-imf-warns-12983198 Labour pledges to bulldoze planning barriers and build 1,500,000 in the next parliament if… Continue reading 5 Fact Friday 13 October 2023
“It’s carnage.” 5 Fact Friday 6 Oct 2023
Video of this: https://youtube.com/live/6I3p90LHE5QAudio podcast: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2109129/13728278 Confused mortgage comparison site says average house prices will fall £50k in 2024. https://thenegotiator.co.uk/house-prices-will-drop-50k-by-end-of-next-year/ Nationwide BS. Yoy unchanged -5.3%https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/house-price-growth-remained-weak-in-september Rightmove rents https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2023/10/Rental-Trends-Tracker-Q3-2023-FINAL.pdf Roof falls in on house building as interest rate rises slash demandhttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/84662714-6368-11ee-aae8-b941e584b333 Halifax September House prices yearly falls accelerate https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/september-2023-house-price-index.pdf