There are lies, damned lies, and the Office for National Statistics. In the latest release, the ONS reported annual house prices to August 2023 actually ROSE 0.2%. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-august-2023/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2023 But the data in the image, taken from raw Land Registry data, shows annual average house price falls of -12.6%. Is there a cover up? Average House… Continue reading House Price Fall Cover-Up?
The house price “correction” if you want to call it that, is only just getting started. The “corrections” being applied will include correcting for: 1. 12+ years of artificially low interest rates 2. The effects of £1trn of QE now being reversed 3. The unwinding of the effects of Help to Buy on wider house… Continue reading The UK’s House Price Correction has only just begun.
1 UK’s biggest wealth manager blocks clients from withdrawing money from their £1bn property fund. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/st-james-place-blocks-clients-pulling-money-major-property/ https://archive.ph/Po6I4 2 Almost half of the 1,200 people surveyed incorrectly think Interest Rates correlate more strongly with house prices than anything else https://x.com/moving_charlie/status/1717178983110832254?s=20 https://x.com/moving_charlie/status/1717541641727115671?s=20 3 Lloyds/Halifax predicts house prices will fall until 2025 https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12673173/House-prices-fall-2025-says-Lloyds-rates-peaked.html 4 Foxtons reports 23% fall… Continue reading 5FF – Fri 27th October 2023
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-14/uk-jobs-market-has-one-recession-warning-signal-flashing-red 2. Rightmove October Index – Asking Prices down -0.8% yoy https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2023/10/Rightmove-HPI-16th-October-Final.pdf 3. Buy to Let party for 70%+ LTV is DEAD. -Savills https://x.com/luciancook/status/1713856335337476129?s=46&t=qGtk0CnhZbr405E5nhNA0w 4. ONS Land Registry House Prices RISE +0.2% yoy https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/august2023 5. Inflation stops falling. Stays at 6.3% (OOH up to 5%) https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest 6. Knight Frank to lay off up to 300… Continue reading 5FF 20 Oct 2023
18 OCT 2023 – HOW WE GOT HERE – 20 years of stimulus, which has all now stopped. 5 House Price Boosting Artificial Stimuli That Have Now Ended QE Stopped https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easing Help to Buy Stopped https://www.gov.uk/help-to-buy-equity-loan Stamp Duty Holiday Ended https://www.gov.uk/guidance/stamp-duty-land-tax-temporary-reduced-rates Covid Stimulus https://www.icaew.com/insights/viewpoints-on-the-news/2021/aug-2021/chart-breakdown-of-the-uk-governments-372bn-covid-bill Low Interest Rates https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.asp WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW (or 6-12 months ago)… Continue reading The Past, Present & Future of UK House Prices
RICS September Survey: Demand, sales, instructions and prices all remain in negative territory https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/9._WEB_September_2023_RICS_UK_Residential_Market_Survey_tp.pdf Wages Cooling: KPMG Survey shows slowest rise in starting pay in over two years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-10/uk-wage-growth-cools-as-job-cuts-mount-and-firms-cap-costs IMF Says Israel-Hamas War will impact global economy, especially oil prices https://news.sky.com/story/israel-hamas-war-is-new-cloud-darkening-horizon-of-global-economy-imf-warns-12983198 Labour pledges to bulldoze planning barriers and build 1,500,000 in the next parliament if… Continue reading 5 Fact Friday 13 October 2023
Video of this: https://youtube.com/live/6I3p90LHE5QAudio podcast: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2109129/13728278 Confused mortgage comparison site says average house prices will fall £50k in 2024. https://thenegotiator.co.uk/house-prices-will-drop-50k-by-end-of-next-year/ Nationwide BS. Yoy unchanged -5.3%https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/house-price-growth-remained-weak-in-september Rightmove rents https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2023/10/Rental-Trends-Tracker-Q3-2023-FINAL.pdf Roof falls in on house building as interest rate rises slash demandhttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/84662714-6368-11ee-aae8-b941e584b333 Halifax September House prices yearly falls accelerate https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/september-2023-house-price-index.pdf
The most dangerous aspect of being an unitiated first time buyer is how easily we can be exploited. First-time buyers are cannon-fodder for feckless estate agents, mortgage brokers and conveyancing call centres. You think you’ve done your research, but it’s all a carefully-laid trap that only the wisest avoid. It’s a time-consuming process to avoid… Continue reading How to avoid First Time Buyer Traps set by estate agents
1. 1990’s: Deliberate Overvaluing used as a new and effective tactic by certain agents, to grab market share, exploiting seller optimism bias. 2. 2000’s: Other agents, losing market share, were left with no choice but to copy, compounding the problem. 3. 2010’s” “Help to Buy”, QE, low interest rates and other stimulus artificially inflates pricing,… Continue reading The 4 Pillars of the Overvaluing House Price Pyramid.
September 2023 BestAgent House Price Index (beta) by Charlie Lamdin Housing market’s weak pulse shows autumn improvement The number of homes showing as “sale agreed” across England jumped by nearly 8% to 62,695 during the middle two weeks of September, reflecting the post-summer holiday seasonal activity increase we’d normally expect. However, transaction numbers remain substantially… Continue reading Autumn asking prices of ‘sold’ homes drop 3.5% in 2 weeks