5FF 8 March 2024 Jan 2024 Transactions fall 10% on year earlier, 20% on December. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above/uk-monthly-property-transactions-commentary 2023 Mortgage Lending lowest in 50 years – UK Finance https://ukfinance-newsroom.prgloo.com/news/affordability-pressures-push-down-mortgage-lending-and-savings-in-2023 UK Spring Budget 2024 – CGT Cut from 28 to 24%, Stamp Duty holiday ends, Holiday Lets tax break ends https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2024/spring-budget-2024-html#:~:text=a%20timely%20manner.-,6.6%20Housing,-Barking%20%E2%80%93%20The OBR: 2026 before house prices rise https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/house-prices/falling-interest-rates-to-drive-house-price-recovery… Continue reading 5 Fact Friday 8 March – Great news
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The Week in Housing: Up, 99, Up, Nothing, Boom.
5FF Feb 23 2024 Rightmove’s “Asking Price” Index Up: https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2024/02/Rightmove-HPI-19th-February-Final-.pdf Hunt mulling 99% taxpayer-guaranteed mortgage lending https://www.ft.com/content/ce643bfa-d4a9-4d85-b28c-6cc0fceba62f Lenders Raise Rates https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68374500 Bank of England nothing burger makes big headlines https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-englands-bailey-sees-signs-uk-economy-upturn-2024-02-20/ BestAgent “People’s” open source House Price Index targets overvaluing culprits and beats hackers https://bestagent.property/hpi
The Week It All Changed.
5 Fact Friday – 16 Feb 2024 ONS December House Price Index continues to be confuseless. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-december-2023/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2023 January Inflation Unchanged Again at 4.2%: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/january2024 GDP – We’re officially in Recession: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/octobertodecember2023 GDP Per Capita – We’ve been in recession for 2 years already: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/octobertodecember2023#:~:text=%2D0.2-,Source%3A%20GDP%20first%20quarterly%20estimate%20from%20the%20Office%20for%20National%20Statistics,-Notes Commercial Property Debt Time-bomb close to detonating: https://www.businessinsider.nl/commercial-real-estate-is-in-big-trouble-and-the-problems-may-have-major-financial-fallout/ Bonus fact, for… Continue reading The Week It All Changed.
Festive Final Five Fact Friday of 2023
5FF 1 Dec 2023 Fact 1: Bank of England October Mortgage approvals up. (They couldn’t have got much lower). https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/money-and-credit/2023/october-2023 Zoopla Nov HPI. – 6 year supply high. £18,000 average discounts from asking price. https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/house-price-index/ Used car market crashing 4.2% in one month https://cardealermagazine.co.uk/publish/used-car-price-crash-continues-with-trade-values-falling-4-2-again-in-november/293687 Government botches leasehold reform legislation. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bill-to-ban-leaseholds-doesnt-ban-leaseholds-ministers-admit-g9mvh27dw New legislation for property listings announced … Continue reading Festive Final Five Fact Friday of 2023
No New Stimulus. 5 Fact Friday 24th Nov 2023
5FF 24 Nov 2023 – The week of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement
5 Fact Friday 17 Nov 2023
5FF 17th Nov 2023 Job Vacancies fall for 16th straight month https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/jobsandvacanciesintheuk/november2023 Headline Inflation drops to 4.7% but Owner Occupier Housing costs need watching. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/october2023 ONS September House Price Index – prices fall -0.5% monthly and show first annual fall in average UK price since 2012 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-september-2023 ONS October Retail Sales fall -0.3% – We’re paying… Continue reading 5 Fact Friday 17 Nov 2023
5 Fact Friday 10 Nov 2023 Mortgage Arrears jump 7% in Q3 2023
Halifax confirms it expects house prices to continue falling until 2025, despite the one month rise in it’s average house price index https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/october-2023-house-price-index.pdf RICS survey for October shows buyer demand and sales activity in ‘deeply negative territory’ https://www.rics.org/content/dam/ricsglobal/documents/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey/10._WEB_October_2023_RICS_UK_Residential_Market_Survey_tp.pdf MHWC provides mathematical proof that house prices go down when the ‘average’ price goes up https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tm4EzSBXTifKIRjPAoTUGW7td62SrPKee4jELjUxgzk/edit?usp=sharing RICS… Continue reading 5 Fact Friday 10 Nov 2023 Mortgage Arrears jump 7% in Q3 2023
5FF 20 Oct 2023
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-14/uk-jobs-market-has-one-recession-warning-signal-flashing-red 2. Rightmove October Index – Asking Prices down -0.8% yoy https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2023/10/Rightmove-HPI-16th-October-Final.pdf 3. Buy to Let party for 70%+ LTV is DEAD. -Savills https://x.com/luciancook/status/1713856335337476129?s=46&t=qGtk0CnhZbr405E5nhNA0w 4. ONS Land Registry House Prices RISE +0.2% yoy https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/august2023 5. Inflation stops falling. Stays at 6.3% (OOH up to 5%) https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/latest 6. Knight Frank to lay off up to 300… Continue reading 5FF 20 Oct 2023
“It’s carnage.” 5 Fact Friday 6 Oct 2023
Video of this: https://youtube.com/live/6I3p90LHE5QAudio podcast: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2109129/13728278 Confused mortgage comparison site says average house prices will fall £50k in 2024. https://thenegotiator.co.uk/house-prices-will-drop-50k-by-end-of-next-year/ Nationwide BS. Yoy unchanged -5.3%https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/house-price-growth-remained-weak-in-september Rightmove rents https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2023/10/Rental-Trends-Tracker-Q3-2023-FINAL.pdf Roof falls in on house building as interest rate rises slash demandhttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/84662714-6368-11ee-aae8-b941e584b333 Halifax September House prices yearly falls accelerate https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/september-2023-house-price-index.pdf