The UK’s House Price Correction has only just begun.

The house price “correction” if you want to call it that, is only just getting started.

The “corrections” being applied will include correcting for:

1. 12+ years of artificially low interest rates

2. The effects of £1trn of QE now being reversed

3. The unwinding of the effects of Help to Buy on wider house prices (c. 20%)

4. The effect of the Covid Cash handout property party (now the hangover)

5. The now-popped Buy To Let bubble

That’s not all

On top of the corrections, (not to double count anything) we also now have: A failing economy Rising joblessness Unmanageable government debt levels The “10% correction” expected by “respectable institutions” will prove a woeful underestimate.

But are they wrong?

Whether they know they’re wrong and are deliberately understating it, or they honestly believe it and are just crap at their jobs, I don’t know. If my 3 year peak to trough -35% estimated average nominal price fall expectations turn out to be anywhere near correct, I realise this means an unimaginably different future for many people who are relying on that not happening.

People relying on house prices for their pension, for their care costs, for their family.

Am I wrong?

I may be wrong, of course. Maybe prices will only fall 10% (they’ve already fallen further, just not yet reported) and everyone can have a good laugh at my expense.

But if you are someone who can’t contemplate anything worse, I encourage you to consider the possibility I’m right, and ask yourself what, 3 years from now, you would wish you had done today with this information.

Especially if your family’s future depends on it.

Charlie Lamdin. 30 October 2023.

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