The 5 facts hitting the housing market hardest in the last 7 days.
Remember: If you’ve recently rented, bought or sold a home, please report your price to the BestAgent Public House Price Index.
5FF 9th October 2026
1. Five-year fixes hit 6% – and it's looking to get worse not better. The market might break if this carries on.
The average five-year fixed mortgage rate has hit 6% for the first time in three years. At the start of September there were 1,494 sub-5% deals. Now there are 9. The 30-year gilt yield reached 6.036%, its highest since 1998.
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8r4yxpry5e9o
RIP sub-5% fixed rates. This is the cost of the fiscal mess showing in gilt yields, and it hits new and remortgage monthly mortgage payments. If you're moving, do not delay, fix for as long as you can, and expect prices to adjust to what buyers can actually borrow.
2. Kemi Badenoch has pledged no stamp duty on main homes, no inheritance tax on the family home, and scrapping the planned mansion tax on homes over ÂŁ2m.
Scrapping Stamp Duty for every private individual moving home would be the biggest favour any government could do the country. Some of the saving could end up in prices in some areas, but that leaves buyers no worse off than they already are. And it has to be all homes, or not at all. A new-build-only cut (as mooted this week) just props up developers.
Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmn5vw05l0q3o
3. Your First Home/Scam:
Lloyds says some first-time buyers could need a deposit of under ÂŁ3,600 under Your First Home (officially a 2.5% deposit with a 20% equity loan). We find out details on 28 October Budget. A tiny deposit on a new build with a new-build premium is a fast route to negative equity. As Merryn Somerset Webb put it in the Bloomberg Podcast last week: "you buy, you lose". Help to Buy wins votes and helps developers. It doesn't make homes more affordable. If you use it, go in with your eyes open about resale value.
Sources: https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2026/10/some-first-time-buyers-need-only-3600-deposit-under-burnham-scheme/ and https://www.cityam.com/cut-stamp-duty-to-reap-4bn-windfall-berkeley-urges-healey/
4. RICS: demand down, supply up
The RICS September survey shows buyer enquiries falling to -22 (from -18), a price balance of -32 and three-month price expectations of -24. New instructions turned positive (+6) for the first time since mid-2025.
https://www.rics.org/news-insights/uk-residential-survey-september-2026
Even more sellers, even fewer buyers. Sellers, price for the market, get paperwork ready before you list, because in a slow market of picky buyers, they'll choose you.
5. Prices stalling and falling, further and faster. Down -18% in some areas of the South East for detached houses (Land Reg).
Nationwide's annual house price growth halved to 0.8% in September. Lloyds (formerly Halifax) was flat at 0.0% on the month and the year, with London and the South East falling fastest.
https://www.nationwide.co.uk/media/hpi/reports/annual-house-price-growth-halves-in-september and https://www.planninggeek.co.uk/2026/lloyds-house-price-index/
Flat "Average" headlines hide real house price falls. Land Registry already shows England and Wales down 4%. Buyers: a low offer is fine when there are no other offers, as long as it's credible and backed by proof you're ready to proceed. Just don't call it a "cheeky offer".
Bonus
• Damien talks sense around housing affordability, ownership costs and not losing hope. Must watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5pHNruev_eE
My quotes in the media this week
Mortgage Introducer — Burnham's Your First Home: the wrong answer to the right question?, 5 Oct
“A government equity loan is more lending.”
The i Paper — Where property sales are down by a quarter and where they're growing, mapped, 6 Oct
“…continue to be a gradual moving north as people in the south look for better value places to live”
Mortgage Introducer — Your First Home price caps could shut out family buyers, 8 Oct
Cited: a 2.5% deposit leaves buyers more exposed to negative equity than Help to Buy did.
This week’s livestreams
“Your First Scam” Stig Live 5 Fact Friday Special. Last week’s 5FF. — Fri 2 Oct (7,497 views)
Mortgage Rates top 6%. Live Q&A — Mon 5 Oct (6,018 views)
The next stage of BestAgent's plan to fix the housing market. — Wed 7 Oct (2,064 views)
Most-viewed this week
X: This is what's known as "Chasing the market down" and it's about the most self-defeating thing any agent or seller can do. (254,213 views)
TikTok: The government's failure to provide job opportunities for young people is an unforgivable transgression. (1,338 views)
Instagram: Any government that genuinely scraps Stamp Duty for all private individuals moving home would be doing the country the biggest favour possible. (1,224 views)
https://www.instagram.com/p/DeL_DWOG6yl/
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