The Past, Present & Future of UK House Prices

18 OCT 2023 – HOW WE GOT HERE – 20 years of stimulus, which has all now stopped.

5 House Price Boosting Artificial Stimuli That Have Now Ended

QE Stopped

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easing

Help to Buy Stopped

https://www.gov.uk/help-to-buy-equity-loan

Stamp Duty Holiday Ended

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/stamp-duty-land-tax-temporary-reduced-rates

Covid Stimulus

https://www.icaew.com/insights/viewpoints-on-the-news/2021/aug-2021/chart-breakdown-of-the-uk-governments-372bn-covid-bill

Low Interest Rates

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boeapps/database/Bank-Rate.asp

WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW (or 6-12 months ago)

5 Latest Year on Year House Price Indices – Confusingly different from -5.3% to +0.2%

Halifax HPI -4.7%

https://www.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/september-2023-house-price-index.pdf

Nationwide HPI. -5.3%

https://www.nationwidehousepriceindex.co.uk/reports/house-price-growth-remained-weak-in-september

Zoopla -0.5%

UK house prices have fallen for the first time since 2012 with prices down -0.5% over the last 12 months

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/discover/property-news/house-price-index/

Rightmove -0.8%

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/content/uploads/2023/10/Rightmove-HPI-16th-October-Final.pdf

Land Registry/ONS  +0.2%

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-august-2023/uk-house-price-index-summary-august-2023

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT – PRICES FALL FOR A LONG TIME.

Some Leading Indicators

New Mortgage Approvals

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/money-and-credit/2023/august-2023

Real Wage Growth

https://www.statista.com/statistics/933075/wage-growth-in-the-uk/

RICS Survey

https://www.rics.org/news-insights/market-surveys/uk-residential-market-survey

Job Vacancies Falling 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/jobsandvacanciesintheuk/october2023

New Build Home Starts

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/housing-supply-indicators-of-new-supply-england-january-to-march-2023/housing-supply-indicators-of-new-supply-england-january-to-march-2023

Rising Unemployment

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/latest#:~:text=The%20unemployment%20rate%20for%20May%20to%20July%202023%20increased%20by%200.5%20percentage%20points%20on%20the%20quarter%20to%204.3%25

UK Company Insolvencies

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-track-most-company-insolvencies-since-2009-2023-07-18/