The five facts hitting the UK housing market hardest in the last 7 days – 4 October 2024
Charlie Lamdin
October 04, 2024 • Estimated Reading Time: 11 minutes
5 Fact Friday
The latest insider intel on UK housing market from Charlie Lamdin
Happy Friday ! Thank you for subscribing to my newsletter.
Thanks to the thousands of you who watched last night’s “Landlords are Stampeding!” livestream.
How is it October already?! Brrrr!
Welcome to this week’s 5 Fact Friday newsletter, your weekly briefing on the most important things affecting the housing market in the last 7 days.
Remember: If you’ve recently rented, bought or sold a home, please report your price to my Public House Price Index.
Before we get into the 5 top facts, this week I began my new weekly show, every Wednesday at 8pm, so you all know when you can definitely catch a livestream every week.
In the launch episode I had 3 guests, Lewis Shaw talking mortgages, Perry Power advising desperate sellers, and the first of a regular slot for Housing Stig.
This week’s top 5 housing market facts:
- Nationwide Building Society reports ‘subdued’ market but rising average
- Aug mortgage approval volumes leap 39% over last year – BoE
- Legal & General and other pension funds sign £1bn buy to rent deal
- Zoopla says national house price growth lower than inflation
- Bank of England governer hints at bigger rate cuts
- PLUS: Homelessness reaches record levels
Fact 1: Nationwide reports ‘average house price’ up 3.2%
Nationwide’s ‘average’ house price is around £30,000 lower than Halifax, showing how inaccurate and vague these indices are. Media seized on the ‘fastest annual rising average’ in 2 years, which will feed the overpricing frenzy.
Disregard National Averages. They never apply to your local market. Be out viewing.
Fact 2: August Mortgage approvals 39% up on 2023
A welcome injection of activity back into transaction volumes. Important to note it hasn’t had any noticeable effect on prices though.
At 66,800 it’s a big jump from last August, but still not yet back to long term average norms of around 75,000.
Fact 3: Legal & General sign £1bn build to rent deal with other pension funds.
As more and more small landlords are forced to sell up due to endless tax and legislation changes, the big guns are building to rent at scale. We will end up with mostly corporate landlords, which is not the improvement many people think it will be. Compassionate flexibility for a tenant having a tough time? I think not.
Fact 4: Zoopla says house prices barely up year on year at 0.7% and still a buyers market.
In stark contrast to Nationwide’s report out a few days earlier, trumpeting ‘fastest yearly rise in 2 years’, Zoopla’s index shows a much more muted figure.
But, as I always say, national averages are meaningless. Look at the local data.
It also pointed out:
- Lowest mortgage rates for 15 months helps sales market activity
- Buyer demand and sales agreed both up 25% on last year
- Buyers remain price-sensitive, keeping price rises in check
- In more affordable areas, house prices rise 2.5%
- Almost 1/3rd of homes for sale are ‘chain-free’
- Investors and second home owners sell in the face of tax changes
- Some coastal and rural areas see supply of homes for sale up 40% on last year
Fact 5: Bank of England boss Andrew Bailey hints at rate cuts, markets go into meltdown pricing in big cuts.
In an interview with the Guardian, the rate setting boss said they may become more active and aggressive with their policy. He also pointed out the risks of an oil price shock caused by the widening unrest in the middle east.
We’ll have to wait and see, but if they do cut rates aggressively, it will certainly stimulate more activity in the market. However, lower rates don’t mean banks will lend more, so it doesn’t automatically mean prices rise. They are going to stagnate at best, in my view.
BONUS tragic Fact: Landlords selling up causes record homelessness.
“ the most common reason for the threatened loss of last settled home was due to the end of their private rented assured shorthold tenancy”
Government policy changes for landlords are now PROVEN to be the number one cause of new homelessness. And yet they continue to press on with more changes that will make this worse.
Statutory homelessness in England: financial year 2023-24
A few more happenings from the week gone by:
I ran a poll on YouTube to see whether I should keep slurping or not. So far, the slurp fans are winning by a margin of 3 to 1!
This week’s most viewed video: Debunking Nationwide House Price Guff
This week’s most viewed post on my X timeline. The economic signals are not good:
That’s all for this week!
Thank you so much for subscribing. Please do give me any feedback you have by replying to this email.
Have a great weekend, lots of love and luck to you all.
Charlie